Rizzo Completes Nationals With Soriano Signing - Gary Armida's Blog

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Rizzo Completes Nationals With Soriano Signing Stuck

Posted on January 16, 2013 at 08:21 AM.

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One of the more surprising actions from the early hot stove season was when Rafael Soriano opted out of his contract with the Yankees that would�ve paid him $14 million for the 2013 season. Soriano was coming off of an excellent season for the Yankees as he ably filled the closer role for the Yankees when Mariano Rivera was lost for the year. That part of it made sense as Soriano would�ve returned to a setup role and would�ve hit the free agent market after the 2013 season as a 34 year old reliever who spent the year setting up for Mariano Rivera. His value likely would�ve diminished, at least financially, with a change of roles.

But, the free agent market for closers hasn�t been big in the past years. Jonathan Papelbon was going to be the highest paid closer in the sport with a $13 million salary. Mariano Rivera is slated to make $10 million. But, Scott Boras almost always reads the market well. He did once again as Boras brokered a deal with the Washington Nationals that will pay Soriano $28 million over the next two seasons with an option for a third season based on games finished (120). It is a deal that makes sense for both parties. Soriano doesn�t get the big pay raise, but he does get an additional year at $14 million with the possibility for a third year.

The Nationals sign Soriano to close for a team that will enter the 2013 season as the heavy favorite to win the National League pennant. Soriano strengthens the already strong Washington bullpen as he�ll push Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard into setup roles, giving Manager Davey Johnson a strong trio of late inning relievers to go along talented long reliever Craig Stammen. Soriano�s presence gives Johnson the ability to have a sort of utilitarian bullpen in that he could select the best reliever for the situation rather than having defined roles. While Soriano will get the bulk of the save chances, Johnson will have options.

Soriano has actually been one of the most consistent relievers in the sport since 2006. Since 2006, Soriano has appeared in 390 games as both a setup man and closer. He�s saved 130 games while pitching 390.1 innings and allowing 6.3 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 9.3 K/9. He has pitched to a 2.65 ERA, a 1.031 WHIP, and a 160 ERA+ in that time period.

Last season, Soriano had the daunting task of filling Mariano Rivera�s shoes. After having his worst full season in 2011, Soriano was viewed as a question mark heading into 2012. But, when Rivera and David Robertson both landed on the disabled list, Soriano seized the closer role and finished with 42 saves, a 2.26 ERA, 7.2 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 9.2 K/9 in 67.2 innings. He also added 4.1 scoreless innings in the playoffs.

For 2013, it certainly appears that the Nationals have upgraded their bullpen. But, there are some disturbing signs for a reliever with an injury history. Those 3.2 walks per nine innings are a bit high. They tend to lead to numbers such as an 88 percent left on base rate. With the league average around 72 percent, Soriano succeeded despite the high number of base runners. The question is whether or not he can do it again?

That is always the question with relievers and why they are so volatile in general. But, Soriano has always walked a few more batters than desired as he has a career walk rate of almost 8 percent. But, his strikeout rate--his consistent strikeout rate--is still one of the best amongst relievers. Last season, he struck out 9.18 batters per nine innings which resulted in a 24.7 percent strikeout rate. With zero decline in velocity and zero change in contact rates, Soriano seems like a solid bet for the next two seasons as the Nationals closer. Additionally, since the bullpen is deep, Soriano doesn�t have to be pushed with Storen and Clippard also possibilities to close. Unlike most teams, the Nationals won�t have to worry if their closer needs a night off.

The Nationals do surrender a draft pick with the signing. It is somewhat of a surprise that an organization that has valued their prospects more than most would surrender a pick. But, there are a few factors that make this risk a quality one. First, the Nationals have one of the last picks in the first round. This particular draft is said to be one of the weakest in years so that makes for the perfect storm. The Nationals won�t be foregoing high end draft talent this year, have lengthened their bullpen with the best closer on the market, and don�t overcommit in terms of years. For a team that is a definite win-now club, this was the proper move to make. If they had an earlier pick, the decision would have been a bit tougher to make, but the fact that the pick is a late one makes the decision quite easy.

And, despite the overall value of the contract, the Nationals are actually paying less for the next two years as half the contract is deferred, giving the Nationals some excellent flexibility. That flexibility is also added to their current �overcrowding� situation on offense. With Mike Morse on the trade market, the Nationals are no longer boxed in to getting a reliever for the valuable right handed hitter. They can shop him a bit more for some more value and organizational depth.

Soriano�s presence will also take away some of the questions that lingered after last season�s game five loss to the St. Louis Cardinals after Drew Storen blew the ninth inning save. It is easy to coronate the Nationals as the favorite based on their excellent season and their young roster, but many forget that they do have a young roster. It�s not that Storen couldn�t or wouldn�t have rebounded in the closer role, but that question is now taken away. Storen can pitch without having to answer the question and the young Nationals won�t be put in that situation to answer those questions. That�s seemingly insignificant, but for a team that will have a spotlight on them all season, it helps.

On the field, Rafael Soriano�s presence makes the Nationals better. If the Nationals had one flaw, it was their bullpen. It wasn�t bad--3.2 WAR (fifth best in NL), 8.21 K/9, and 3.42 BB/9--but it wasn�t a strength. Soriano gives Davey Johnson three high end late inning relief options. It not only helps them in the regular season, but gives them a dangerous postseason setup with elite level starters with the ability to pitch deep into games followed by three high level late inning relievers.

There is no such thing as a perfect team, but the Washington Nationals� roster is solid from player one through 25. They have three elite level starting pitchers with Dan Haren having the potential to be a fourth if healthy. They have one of the best fifth starters in the sport in Ross Detwiler. Their offense is solid in every position, they have a quality bench, and, now, a deep bullpen. They also have, perhaps, the most underrated Manager in Major League Baseball history in Davey Johnson. It was the right time to give up the draft pick to put the finishing touches on a championship caliber team. Now, they just have to go out and win. Their General Manager has certainly given them everything they need to do just that. Rafael Soriano was the right final piece and at the right price given their circumstances.

Sound off OS: Are the Nationals the NL�s best team heading into the 2013 season?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.